This proposal enables raising the alert about critical feedbacks between climate, society, land-use change, vegetation change, water availability and policies in Amazonia. This project will (1) analyze and improve coupled models of global climate and Amazon, land use, vegetation and socio-economic drivers to quantify anthropogenic and climate induced land-use and land cover change and non-linear, irreversible feedbacks among these components (2) assess the role of regional and global policies and societal responses in the Amazon region for altering the trajectory of land-use change in the face of climate change and other anthropogenic factors and finally (3) propose i) an Early Warning System for detecting any imminent irreversible loss of Amazon ecosystem services, ii) policy response strategies to prevent such loss. Based on LuccME framework, spatially explicit land use change scenarios were developd for both Brazilian Amazon and Bolivia using qualitative and quantitative approaches. AMAZALERT integrates the multidisciplinary knowledge and research of world-renowned, highly influential climate, land cover, land use change scientists and also policy analysts from 14 European and South-American institutions that have been collaborating for 10 to 30 years. Thus, this project can achieve maximum impact on EU (2020 climate goals), international and South-American strategies, including REDD.

Results (models and scenarios)

Deforestation scenarios for the Bolivian lowlands
In this study, we use the LuccME framework to create a spatially explicit land cover change model for the Bolivian lowlands and run it under three different deforestation scenarios up to 2050. Under In the Sustainability scenario, deforestation reaches 17,703,786 ha, accentuated markedly in previously deforested or degraded areas, leaving intact forest extensions. In the Middle of the road scenario, deforestation and degradation move toward new or paved roads with 25,698,327 ha in 2050; intact forests are located in Protected Areas (PAs). Under In the Fragmentation scenario, deforestation expands in almost all Bolivian lowlands reaching 37,944,434 ha and leaving only small forest patches in a few PAs.

This work is described in Tejada et al.,2015.

INCT para Mudanças Climáticas
O principal objetivo do INCT para Mudanças Climáticas é produzir informações relevantes e com elevado nível de qualidade para: (i) detectar mudanças ambientais no Brasil e América do Sul e atribuir causas às mudanças observadas (aquecimento global, mudanças dos usos da terra, urbanização etc.); (ii) desenvolver um modelo do Sistema Terrestre para gerar cenários de mudanças ambientais globais e regionais, particularmente cenários em alta resolução espacial de mudanças climáticas e de usos da terra; (iii) estudar os impactos das mudanças climáticas e identificar as principais vulnerabilidades do Brasil nos seguintes setores e sistemas estratégicos: ecossistemas e biodiversidade, agricultura, recursos hídricos, saúde humana, cidades, zonas costeiras, energias renováveis e economia); e (iv) desenvolver técnicas e metodologias de mitigação. Em parceria com a Rede Brasileira de Mudanças Climáticas (Rede CLIMA), o INCT para Mudanças Climáticas contribui como pilar de pesquisa e desenvolvimento do Plano Nacional de Mudanças Climáticas.

Land use change in Amazonia: institutional analysis and modeling at multiple temporal and spatial scales
This project focuses on the understanding of the complex social process of anthropogenic occupation that contributes to large-scale deforestation in Amazonia. In order to generate a better understanding of the impacts of land use dynamics in the Amazon on global environmental changes, and vice-versa, we argue that social processes underlying such changes need to be better understood, and incorporated into Land Use and Land Cover Change (LUCC) models. Thus we propose to explore the following core scientific question: How are the evolutions of land use systems and institutional arrangements interrelated in the Amazon? We will study human-induced landscape changes observed over the past 40 years as a result of the co-evolution of institutional arrangements defining resource control and ownership, including: land tenure, territorial planning, market chains, and policies to control deforestation. The study will be comprised of multi-scale and comparative case studies, each of which organized along four interrelated Iines of research, combining methods from different academic areas, including social analysis of institutional arrangements, remote sensing, landscape ecology, and dynamic modeling. Throughout the project, we will integrate case studies results to establish interrelations and an analytical understanding of social and institutional processes of change at different scales. Such findings will be incorporated into multi-scale LUCC models and scenarios.